Forex trading strategy #4 (Simple 1-2-3 swings) Forex ...

Sharing stocks and forex trading materials

PM me if you would like to get these
Stocks, forex ebooks and forum pdf, indicators
Jtrader Daytrading method
YTC trading method
Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone
spartan fx renko box
Alexander Elder - Lessons From a Traders' Camp 1999
Footprint Deep Dive
Learn, Plan, Profit - Your A-Z Blueprint To Mastering The Stock
MambaFX Day Trading Scalping Bundle 02 19
Forex Trading Pro Indicator
Anyone who are interested in the following trading videos [from successful traders], pls pm or drop me an email. [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Investor Live - Trade on the fly
Investors Live Textbook Trading
Investors Live Tandem Trader
James Dalton Trading Course
SMB Reading the Tape
All Tim Syke Collection
Steven Dux Trading Technique
Steven Dux Duxinator & Freedom Challenge
Akil Stokes & Jason Graystone - TierOneTrading
Andrew Keene - Ichimoku Cloud Course
Auction Market Foundations Course-Tom Alexander
Avdo - ForexGrid Mentoring Program
Axia Futures - The Footprint Course
Cameron Fous – Epic Sequal! FOUS4x2! New Day Trading
Elliott Wave Ultimate
Forex4noobs
Gary Dayton – Trade Tops & Bottoms
Hanzo Shadowcode Forex
ICT mentorship
Investopedia Academy - Advanced Options Trading
Market profile training
OFA Volume Profile Course
Babypips Peter Fader VSA Course
Ryan Teo Price Action Trading Institute
Sang Lucci Trading ORder FLow
Simpler Trading - INTRODUCTION TO THINKSCRIPT
Simpler Trading - The Bullseye System
SMB Foundation Forex
Paul Scolardi Super Trade Bootcamp
Tim Grittani - Trading Tickers
Timothy Morge - Market Geometry
tradeguider-vsa-chart-reading-masterclass
Trader Dale Forex
Trader Dante Bund Method
Understanding Global Fundamentals Course by Chris Lori
Wolf Trading – A Day Trading Guide (Roland Wolf
Wyckoff Trading Making Profits With Demand And Supply
submitted by fistno to FreeKarma4You [link] [comments]

Most economical way of paying off student loan from overseas.

I searched through this subreddit and was surprised to see this hasn't been discussed at much length (or I am bad at searching).
I am living overseas in Canada and am being charged 3.5% interest on my student loan balance so I'd like to now start paying it off ASAP.
From what I can see there are a number of possible methods for paying off a student loan from overseas:
I put together a quick table summarizing my options, calculated at 07:00 EDT - 9/8/20. Some things to note:
Method Fee Send Amount (CAD) Recieve Amount (NZD) Notes
TransferWise $8.79 $891.60 $1,000.00
Western Union $0.00 $908.30 $1,000.00
Orbit Remit $0.00 --- --- CAD Not Available
XE $0.00 ? $1,000.00 Website Down
OFX $0.00 $887.67 $1,000.00
Credit Card $0.00 $896.33 $1,000.00
Credit Card $12.72 $909.05 $1,000.00 IRD Convenience fee included (1.42%)​
Direct Debit $0.00 $904.10 $1,000.00
I have a few questions:
Thanks!
submitted by middayjester to PersonalFinanceNZ [link] [comments]

Giving away all Trading courses materials or Ecommerce courses materials at low cost

Yup, as stated. Tried to post in relevant subreddit but kept getting deleted by mob bot.
PM me u/fistno or email [email protected] if you like the following:
Trading courses material:

Stocks, forex ebooks and forum pdf, indicators
Jtrader small cap trading
YTC trading
Trading in the Zone
spartan fx renko box
Crypto Trading
Alexander Elder - Lessons From a Traders' Camp 1999
Footprint Deep Dive
Learn, Plan, Profit - Your A-Z Blueprint To Mastering The Stock
MambaFX Day Trading Scalping Bundle 02 19
Forex Trading Pro Indicators
Investors Live trade on the fly
Investors Live Textbook Trading
Investors Live Tandem Trader
James Dalton
SMB Reading the Tape
Tim Syke Collection
Steven Dux Trading Tech
Steven Dux Duxinator & Freedom Challenge
Akil Stokes & Jason Graystone - TierOneTrading
Andrew Keene - Ichimoku Cloud Course
Auction Market Foundations Course-Tom Alexander
Avdo - ForexGrid Mentoring Program
Axia Futures - The Footprint Course
Cameron Fous – Epic Sequal! FOUS4x2! New Day Trading
Elliott Wave Ultimate
Forex4noobs
Gary Dayton – Trade Tops & Bottoms
Hanzo Shadowcode
ICT
Investopedia Academy - Advanced Options Trading
market profile training
OFA Volume Profile Course
Peter Fader VSA Course
Ryan Teo Price Action Trading Institute
Sang Lucci
Simpler Trading - INTRODUCTION TO THINKSCRIPT
Simpler Trading - The Bullseye System
SMB Foundation Forex
Super Trade
Tim Grittani - Trading Tickers
Timothy Morge - Market Geometry
tradeguider-vsa-chart-reading-masterclass
Trader Dale Forex
Trader Dante Bund Method
Understanding Global Fundamentals Course by Chris Lori
Wolf Trading – A Day Trading Guide (Roland Wolf
Wyckoff Trading Making Profits With Demand And Supply

or Ecommerce tools/ courses material:

wordpress themes/ woocomerce/ yoast plugins/ etc
SEO all food that you need
SEO MEGA 2013
1000+ PLR articles
Adrian Morrison - EcomSuiteX
Benjamin Joseph - Amazon FBA Secrets 3.0
Benjamin Joseph - Amazon FBA Secrets 3.0 UP1
Matt Clark Amazon Sellers Summit Barcelona
Stefan.James.Life.Business.Mastery Accelerator
Amazon Yuping.Power.Sourcing.Course
Tai Lopez Courses
19 Copywriting Secrets to Convert Leads to Customers.zip
CrazyTalk Pipeline 8.rar
Niche Authority Domination Cou… [2018].zip
Dan Kennedy Mind Hijacking
Dan.Kennedy.Source.Code.to.Building Attraction
Dan.Lok.Perfect.Closing.Script
Facebook.Ads.Mastery.Strategy
Grant Cardone courses
Grant.Cardone.and.Frank.Kern.Branding.Webinar
Helium.10.Elite.Amazon.FBA.Masterminds
Kevin.David.Amazon.FBA.Ninja
Kevin.David.Digital.Course.Secrets.2019
submitted by fistno to u/fistno [link] [comments]

Is no nonsense forex legit?

I just finished learning the core basics/theory of forex, and now I wanna slowly move on to building my strategy. I found no nonsense forex and his advice/methods look awesome to me, I saw a lot of positive response in his comment sections and so on, but I haven’t seen any negative criticism against him and I would like to hear out the opinions of people who either disagree with him or have something to warn me about. So what is your opinion on him?
submitted by simas1014 to Forex [link] [comments]

Crypto Trader Turned Forex, Need Help I have 100k

Hello im a crypto trader, ive made many trades from october to now, from 400$ to 4.2 million, i now want to start trading the forex with 100k
My method of trading involves using 50:1 margin with all 100k on leverage, (ive tried this on the demo) this how i did in crypto, i was extremely successful with demo accounts
My question is will i able to duplicate the same results using platforms like OANDA or should I look somewhere since i need my orders to be filled semi instantly and i usually sell at 10k profits usually so 3-10 pips,( is this feasible with my margin on a platform?)
Ive tried searching online but most people dont seem to follow this strat
EDIT: i dont really reddit much and just made this account when i was young and a troll so i dont know if im doing this reddit thing right i receive a ton of usefull information and help and even some job offers, some people actually recognize who i was from the crypto community , im going to continue my research and probably enter the forex market; the latest in june, so expect an update from me mid/late summer
Thank you all for the help and information you provided! i hope it helps others who had a hard time finding stuff like this online like me!
submitted by LyteuRinTrouble to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex - Financial Data for Currency Traders

Automated Forex trading systems are pre-programmed strategies that automatically Forex Millennium Review execute trades under the guidance of your personal strategy. It's an option you'll find available with most trading software platforms, and to be used effectively it must be configured to your own requirements. An automated Forex trading system enables you to execute your trades on the Forex market anytime of the day, based on existing technical indicators and custom trading rules that you personally establish. The various features within an automated trading system may include ...

The two primary reasons for using an automated Forex trading system are to make sure you don't miss a trade and to help assure that emotions don't overtake your trading strategy. In case you're confused, a system is a strategy, software program, or course designed as a guide by Forex trading experts. It's not the Holy Grail of Forex trading, but a method for evaluating market conditions and currency movements that's proven successful in the past.

Because of automation, a trader can close a trade within milliseconds, something that's impossible in manual systems since previous trades are normally closed after several hours. In addition, a trader can trade within varying time zones. In other words, you can place trades or close deals with traders from around the world, even in the middle of the night. Another bonus ... short-term data analysis. Traders using an automated system can predict market trends in less than an hour.

What exactly are trading signals?

Trading signals are indicators of Forex market trends, generally based on a trading system, that tell the trader the best time to buy or sell a currency. These trends can include everything from currency pairs near moving averages, to support and resistance levels, to Fibonacci levels. Different trading systems can require different signals and trends for their recommendations. Some systems can include as many 26 indicators in their development of trading signals.


https://spontaneousreview.com/forex-millennium-review/
submitted by amysmart0327 to u/amysmart0327 [link] [comments]

Trading Edge - What, How and Why?

What is an example of a trading edge?
Edge can be summed up in a formula that applies to any instrument (see below). Like risk management, everyone like to talk about it, but few people actually can distinguish between sustainable, stylistic, and systemic edge.
How can I find my edge as a trader?
Trading edge is a story, it is a number
What is the best response to "What is your edge" when asked by a potential investor?
'Edges' Managers Often Think Are Edges That Aren't Actually Edges:
7. I AM A TIGER CUB
6. OUR BACKTESTED RESULTS ARE PHENOMENAL
5. WE'RE DOCTORS. WE KNOW BIOTECH (AKA “We’re geologists. We know mining”, “We’re engineers. We know technology”, etc.)
4. WE HAVE 20 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE
3. WE WENT TO HARVARD
2. WE'VE WORKED TOGETHER AS A TEAM FOR 8 YEARS
1. OUR STRATEGY IS UNCORRELATED
How do I get knowledge in trading?
1. Read books
2. Educate yourself online.
3. Read articles
4. Find a mentor
5. Study the greats
6. Read and follow the market
7. Consider paid subscriptions
8. Go to seminars, take classes
9. Practice trading through a online simulator
10. Open trading and demat account with a good broker
Why does the truly successful trader in forex never share their method or strategy?
We know that, you simply often chose not to believe so.
Newbies don’t need strategies, they need experience
My job is to trade, not to teach.
submitted by VelocityStrategy to antialgoalgoclub [link] [comments]

forex_strategies has been created

Learn Forex Trading Strategies and Methods
submitted by chinthakazoom to forex_strategies [link] [comments]

What's the best way to send money from my SA bank account to UK bank account?

I just used PayPal (I have one PayPal account per bank account).
Sent R3032.49, recieved £155.67 (Exchange rate according to xe.com was 18.39 £)
Are there better ways?
I pretty much have to do this monthly to pay off an overdraft. Need to try reduce fee expenses.
I think next month I might just send R1000 x 3 methods
  1. FNB Forex/Swift native banking method
  2. Paypal method I have been using
  3. Bitcoin conversion
But any ideas up front on the best way?
submitted by dnk8n to capetown [link] [comments]

Can you Trust Greg Insider Method? Learn the TRUTH here

Is Greg Insider Method a scam or real? Learn the TRUTH here
Name: Greg Insider Method
Niche: Binary Options
Type: Refundable loss Binary Option
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Personally, I did not catch the first wave of Greg Insider Method review and the overwhelming amount of success that others have reported from Greg Insider Method review, which is why I am writing a review on Greg Insider Method, so others do not miss out on this one.
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Greg Insider Method is powered by a algorithm that actually works and has been field tested over and over again. There is nothing else that even compares with Greg Insider Method review when it comes to quality.
The $500,000 dollar guarantee
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Greg Insider Method review has a contract with their Binary Option traders and Binary Option broker that Greg Insider Method review will absorb the losses of any Binary Option trader who signs up with Greg Insider Method review, meaning that the Binary Option trader can't lose with Greg Insider Method review. It's a win win situation.
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Greg Insider Method is highly recommended by countless other Binary Option traders, not just me
On the Greg Insider Method review website, you can see and read the countless testimonials for the Greg Insider Method review from the countless happy Binary Option Traders that have had success and their lives have changed thanks to the Greg Insider Method review software and the team of professionals behind it.
At this point I have yet to really see any unhappy Binary Option traders with Greg Insider Method review. The majority that have enjoyed Greg Insider Method review give the Greg Insider Method review team absolutely nothing but praise for all the work they have done.
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click here for my email>>> [email protected].
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submitted by sienna_calloway to binaryreviewpanther [link] [comments]

MIND BLOWING Monte Carlo Method Review 2015 - Is Monte Carlo Method SCAM Or LEGIT? Best Binary Options Trading Software?. The Truth About The Monte Carlo Method

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Monte Carlo Method Description:
Name: Monte Carlo Method
Niche: Binary Options.
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To help you trade binary options effectively, it is essential to have an understanding behind the fundamentals of Binary Options Trading. Currency Trading, or forex, is based upon the viewed value of two currencies pairs to one another, and is influenced by the political stability of the country, inflation and interest rates among other things. Keep this in mind as you trade and discover more about binary options to optimize your learning experience.
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submitted by ConnleyRawicki24 to ConnleyRawicki [link] [comments]

Aussie Method Review, Is Aussie Method Review a Scam or Legit? Download #AussieMethod With Bonus

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submitted by ahadil to ChristmasProfits [link] [comments]

**Forex Income Boss Review**

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submitted by ahadil to ChristmasProfits [link] [comments]

I have an 89% win rate over 18 trades, with a 27% profit. How many trades should I do before going live?

So I've been doing some scalping on pairs with high spreads in cryptocurrencies previously with great success, but I finally figured I'd give forex a real shot (was into it a few years ago, but didn't go live). Last time I scalped in crypto, I had 14 out of 14 successful trades, but only about a 10% profit. I haven't heard about anyone scalping the way I do in crypto, but I find my method extremely reliable when I just find the right pair to trade. This is just to say I have some experience with trading, but I'm by no means an expert.
Now, I've been scalping the past few days with a paper trading account on TradingView. I've mostly been trading the US Currency Index, S&P 500 and some crypto pairs thus far. I'm scalping on the 1m time frame using bollinger bands and looking at trends, price action and stoch RSI for confirmation on my entries. I started out with 100k a few days ago and first doubled my account to around 200k and then did a 1,3 mill trade, but I was running like 500-1000 USD per pip, so if the market turned against me, I'd be liquidated real quick. While the trades were good, I figured I was disconnected from the risk I was taking because it isn't real money, and I wanted to try doing more conservative and realistic trades, so I reset the account yesterday.
Edit (more trades done): Since the account was reset, I've done 45 trades where I've lost on two of them. If my math serves me right, that's about an 95.5% win rate. I'm up around 77.5% currently. I did lose 1500 on one trade, but that's because I by mistake placed a sell order when I was supposed to add another buy order double down on my long position, so I'm not counting that one in (but I'm not counting the 1500 I lost as profit either). I have a very strict strategy I'm sticking to when doing these scalps. I realize 45 trades is not a huge sample size, but that is kinda why I'm asking:
How many trades should I do on the paper trading account before I should run it live with confidence?
For anyone who might be interested, here's my account history: https://imgur.com/a/zuRSWwd
Edit: here's 6 trades more: https://imgur.com/a/CmbyU6n
Edit2: some more trades: https://imgur.com/a/q9xqVyq
Edit3: I think we're up to 45 trades now: https://imgur.com/a/CsWZEN7
submitted by imawfullyaverage to Forex [link] [comments]

Double Supertrend Strategy Backtest (8500+ Trades on 28 Pairs)

Hi everyone, so a few months ago I discovered this post by u/AHoomanBeanz which is a strategy I've never heard of before. Basically, you have 2 Supertrends, a short-term one, and a long-term one and when both Supertrends go in the same direction you take a trade.
I took the liberty of modifying the strategy by setting fixed TPs instead of trailing SL with the short-term Supertrend. Check out his post for more info about entries, SL, etc.
In order to determine what way is the most efficient, I backtested this exact strategy on all 28 Majors and Minors and took five different approaches to TPs and moving of SL:
- 1:1 RRR, No Breakeven SL - 1:1.5 RRR, No BE SL - 1:2 RRR, No BE SL
- 1:1.5 RRR, Move SL to BE at 1:1 RRR - 1:2 RRR, Move SL to BE at 1:1RRR
There would be many other ways to handle the TPs and SLs but it already took me months to backtest this but if anyone wants to extend this backtest, feel free.

The Results
Using all 5 ways there were 8 out of 28 pairs that weren't profitable at all. (EURGBP, EURCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, AUDCHF, NZDJPY, CADCHF, CHFJPY)
The remaining 20 pairs were profitable with at least one of the 5 ways. So I combined all 20 pairs and their most profitable TP/SL management methods and it turns out that the strategy isn't even that bad considering that you really just have to understand how Supertrends work.
Now here are some quick stats: Backtest Period: Jan 2017 - Aug 2020
- Risk Per Trade: 1% - Winrate: 44.66% - Profit Factor: 1.65 - Average Monthly Return: 5.81% - Max Drawdown: 18.4%

Notice that the drawdown is pretty high so if you're trading with a prop firm like FTMO you could just risk half as much (0.5% per trade) and your max DD would be 9.2%. Keep in mind that the return would also get cut in half.
If you want to get a more detailed view, here's the backtesting spreadsheet
(Before anyone asks: I spent 2-4h per day for around 6 weeks backtesting and tracking this stuff.)
submitted by FxRaHe to Forex [link] [comments]

Am I barking up the wrong tree again?

Long story short, I've been learning forex for the past 6 years on and off, searching for the holy grail of indicator combinations and only just realised they don't work. Mostly because of a youtube video I stumbled on by accident.
So is this a method of trading with higher probability of success?
Only focusing on 2 pairs I like for now....
I go to the D1 charts and plot lines around areas where price has reversed in the long run repeatedly back in time. Then I draw some boxes around these lines as areas of interest. Then as price reaches those boxes I scan down the timeframes to the H1 charts to see if price is slowing in momentum. If it is, I'll check a M15 chart to see if price is about to reverse or continue using candle stick patterns and wait for a retest of the area before taking a trade accordingly with a 1:3 RR minimum, trailing SL behind swings high or low.
Here's an example of my D1 chart - https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ei8jT88G
Would anyone be willing to be a mentor to me? I'm determined to get this right this time.
submitted by I_BA1LEY_I to Forex [link] [comments]

"Dr" Azizan Osman Cult (BRUNEI BRANCH)

Ever since i started business, I've noticed this cancerous trend of young and old entrepreneurs who have been promoting the "Marketing Master" "Dr" Azizan Osman, who has been exposed in Malaysia for his fake PhD's (but people are just gonna give him a pass so they can feel good about wasting their money to sit in his VIP seminars).
Local entrepreneurs who have been duped into his cult "mentorship" will mention his name in every newspaper, radio, video interview to promote him. They will sound very confident about how they have "mastered marketing". There are some youtube videos of his giving business and marketing advice with the emotional background music to lure local entrepreneurs into his trap. His ticket prices go up to almost 4000 myr, and its mostly marketing or business advice you can get from a nice cheap book or browsing the internet or those awesome Jack Ma (alibaba.com) videos (free) on youtube.
Why am I so salty? Coz i have a special hate in my heart for MLM's and MLM-ish cults and their deceptive methods of bleeding our people dry, and i hate that his cult slaves are promoting him everywhere. Now I know that mentioning his name here might promote him in a way, but i trust that the majority of the reddit community will not fall into his trap. I wanna know what people think of this cult movement being present in Brunei.
Even in the west, marketing or business coaching is considered a new way of ponzi or scamming people. Here is some logic, if youre successful you will share your knowledge for free. This is similar to the "Master Forex Trader" scam where they charge people to teach them how to be a master, and if things go south its your fault, not the scammer.
submitted by Snoo82983 to Brunei [link] [comments]

Is forex tick data streamed from one broker enough to gauge an approximation of the "real volume"?

Forex is decentralized so it's very hard to gauge the real volume of the pairs. I can't imagine streaming tick data from multiple major forex brokers to aggregate their data just to determine the volume. It'd be too much work for an individual trader like me, and too much work for my computer, too.
So I was instead thinking of using the tick data streamed from the one broker that I'm using to derive approximate volume, which I hope will be close enough to the actual volume.
I thought of a few ways to use the tick data streamed from my broker's MT4:
A. calculate the sum of the number of ticks from a given time window (ex: number of ticks from the last 30 seconds)
B. calculate the sum of the "Volume" values of the ticks from a given time window (in this case, the "Volume" means MQL4's built-in variable Volume, not the actual volume)
And then do some further calculations, such as generating moving averages on A or B.
One possible problem that will probably degrade the quality of the above calculations would be that MT4's EA can drop newer ticks if the previous onTick() event is still running when the newer ticks arrive.
I am not using any live data yet. Currently, I'm only using historical tick data downloaded from truefx.com and histdata.com to do my back tests; both websites' tick data seem to be good enough for me.
Has anyone used tick volume from a single data source to derive approximate volume with acceptable level of accuracy successfully? How reliable is my method of gauging forex volume?
submitted by twistedmush to algotrading [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

Is the aliagator method actually works?

I'm beginner and I'm looking to try forex on my phone when I'm not home with my desktop, recently I've been watching YouTube videos on the aliagator method because it's looks promising and easy to understand. I would appreciate any thoughts or opinions on this method.
submitted by bennygghj to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Some trading wisdom, tools and information I picked up along the way that helped me be a better trader. Maybe it can help you too.

Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them.
There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos.
Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick.
On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas.
Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day.
I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row.
General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.
  1. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
  2. PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
  3. INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
  4. PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
  5. TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
  6. ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.

Trade the Trade - The Methodology

Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.
  1. Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
  2. Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
  3. Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
  4. Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
  5. Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
  6. Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.
Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day.
People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade.
**P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm.
Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.
Conclusion
I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses.

Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.
It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting"
Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index.
I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line
Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index.
It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line.
Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on.

TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it.
At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.
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